How to Keep Your Cool—and Your Capital—When the PSEi Goes Off a Cliff

The market just punched us in the mouth.

On Monday, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) dropped 4.3%, closing at 5,822.85—its worst daily decline since the world was locked down in June 2020. This wasn’t your average market dip. It was a full-blown bloodbath, with heavyweight names like Jollibee getting knocked down nearly 10%, and SM sliding into 52-week lows.

Foreign investors weren’t sticking around for the show. They packed up $56.42 million worth of capital and ran. The peso took another punch, dropping to ₱57.38 per dollar.

Here’s the truth: This isn't just a Philippine problem. It’s a global reckoning, some say it’s a reset.

The Bigger Picture Is Even Uglier

Markets across the globe are tanking. The US closed last week with nearly 6% in losses, and futures were already looking like a horror movie sequel with another projected 4% drop. And get this: US tariffs are now averaging 25%—higher than the Smoot-Hawley days of the 1930s that helped usher in the Great Depression.

Translation: the global economy is creaking. China, Vietnam, Indonesia are feeling the heat. North Asia may face further waves of volatility.

So what do these all mean for you— if you’ve already lost money in the markets or for those standing one wrong step away from watching years of wealth disappear?

• When we take losses, our nervous system goes into fight-or-flight mode. Every red candlestick looks like a threat. Every headline feels like doom.

It’s not about Panic, but more about Mastery. The Market’s not our enemy. Sometimes, our emotions are.

It’s worth remembering that people who build wealth or have wealth—the kind that lasts—don’t chase dopamine. They follow discipline.

A ‘GREAT’ Framework: Finding Clarity in Chaos

That said, we don’t need more hype. We need a system. Hence, I use what I call a ‘GREAT’ framework-- which simply asks 5 questions to make sense and generate a simplified view of the Stock Market. It’s not magic, and it’s not some guru gimmick—it’s a structured lens I’ve used to manage investments through the years. It helps cut through the noise and tells us exactly what to do—without the least second-guessing. Here’s what GREAT tells us right now:

• G - GDP Growth: Will PH GDP grow above 6%?
  
  Yes, the Philippines can still hit above 6%. Why? Our economy isn’t heavily dependent on US exports, and easing inflation means more spending at home.
  

• R - Rates & Inflation: Will inflation and interest rates drop significantly?
  
  Yes, interest rates are likely to fall as global trade tension drags on growth. Central banks don’t want to kill economies—they’ll ease up.
  

• E - Earnings Growth:  Can corporate earnings grow above 10%?
  
  Nope. Global headwinds cap earnings growth at around 9%. Not terrible, but not enough to fuel a strong rally. Though stocks are cheap—trading at 9x PER.
  

• A - Adverse Risks: Are there NO major threats to the Economy & the Equity Market?
  
  Big yes. Tariffs, geopolitics, recession fears—they’re all real. Even if the Philippines is somewhat insulated, sentiment is contagious. Panic is global.
  

• T - Trends in Foreign Buying: Is foreign investor participation improving? 
  
  Hard NO. Foreign investors are running for the hills. When that changes, we’ll have a signal. But for now, it’s dry out there.

So—2 out of 5. That’s not great. That’s a tactical downgrade from NEUTRAL to UNDERWEIGHT.

Tactical Playbook: Survive Today, Thrive Tomorrow

When the market turns into a blender, we don’t dive in headfirst. We position smart. We protect our downside. Stay in control. Here’s how I’m playing it:

• Balanced or Moderate investors? Keep equities below 40%.

• Conservative? Sit this one out. Stay in cash or income-generating assets.

• If you're investing, stick with high-quality, deep-value, or dividend plays—companies like Ayala Land or Jollibee, beaten down but built to last.

• Limit exposure to non-index stocks—keep it under 6% of your portfolio.

Rubble Now, Retirement Later

I get it. This week feels like financial hell. But markets don’t move in straight lines. They break you before they build you. And if you can stay present and manage risk instead of emotion, you have a great chance to look back on this season as the starting point of your legacy.  So breathe and tighten your game plan. When the dust settles, you’ll still be standing—portfolio intact, and later on an epic retirement/future wide open.

If this hits home, explore From Red to Green—my online course presenting a proven system to protect your wealth and rebuild portfolios with confidence.