Winter Isn’t Coming. It’s Already Here.
A fractured Senate. A pivot to populism. And a market that rewards clarity over noise. Play accordingly.
Let’s stop pretending this is just politics. What just happened in the Philippine midterms? That wasn’t an election—it was a reckoning, a power audit. The House of Marcos backed 12 candidates for the Senate. Only 5 made it through. That’s not a stumble. That’s a strategic slip.
Meantime, House Duterte rose from the ashes—claiming 5 seats of their own, including two defectors who once swore loyalty to Casa Marcos. One of them? His own sister. And the last two seats? Seized by old rivals and dark horse candidates—Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan. Dismissed in every pre-election survey, they returned anyway. But that’s the thing about underdogs—they don’t ask for permission to rise.
In the Game of Thrones, blood is weaker than momentum.
Here’s what the battlefield looks like, after the smoke’s cleared following a not-so-smooth, kings landing:
9 loyal to the Marcos banner
7 riding with House Duterte
8 in the shadows—undecided, unpredictable, dangerous
And to pass any meaningful legislation? One would need backdoor alliances, late-night offers and horse-trading that would put wall street to shame.
So unless we see a royal shift, the math says forget impeachment. You’d need 16 swords to convict the Vice President. PBBM holds 9. Unless he convinces 7 independents to throw themselves into the fire for him, the trial may be lucky to survive before the first witness speaks.
Lose the Narrative, Lose the War
This wasn’t just about counting votes. It was about losing control of the story. At Y Combinator (Silicon Valley’s top startup accelerator) one of the first things they drill into founders is this: Make something people want.
If you’re not solving the right problem, nothing else matters. It doesn’t matter how strong your brand is, how much capital you’ve raised, or how dominant you looked six months ago. If the narrative shifts—and you don’t shift with it—you’re dead.
The Administration didn’t lose ground because it’s side was weak. It was simply because it misread the moment—and in doing so, handed the opposition a rallying cry. The arrest of former president Duterte in The Hague wasn’t just a legal maneuver. In hindsight, it was seen—as a betrayal. A political gut punch aimed at a figure who apparently still commands fierce loyalty across the archipelago.
The move reawakened the Duterte war machine, turning passive supporters into active warriors. It gave them a common enemy. And it gave them momentum. In politics, you don’t create martyrs unless you’re ready to fight a holy war. The President kept selling stability, but the ground had already shifted. The people didn’t want tradition—they wanted traction. They didn’t want legacy—they wanted leverage.
Sound familiar? How many startups have done the same—launching too late, solving problems no one’s thinking about, clinging to a vision the market has moved on from? They don’t get beat by better products. They get erased by irrelevance.
In a Fractured Arena, Mentorship Is Your Small Council
When the court fractures and alliances cost more than they used to, you don’t raise your voice. You raise your advisors. You don’t need louder strategies—you need sharper ones.
Founders think mentorship is a safety net. What Mentorship really is, is a weapon. When you’re building fast in a volatile market—you don’t need motivational posters. You need battle-tested feedback. Blunt truths. And people who can see the fire coming before you smell the smoke.
That’s why I pay for coaching. Why I seek out mentors who challenge my thinking, not just pat my back. Because mentorship collapses time. It turns chaos into frameworks. And it gets you out of your own damn way. There’s no honor in struggling alone. Only delay. And damage.
Politics is no different. You don’t go to war with yes-men. You bring a council of killers—strategists who know when to pivot, when to press, and when to say, “This move costs more than it’s worth.” Those who challenge your thesis until it bleeds.
And if you’re a founder trying to go solo in this market—political or economic—you’re walking into the arena naked. You’ll either be the founder with a war chest of wisdom and allies—or some guy in the corner yelling about how things should’ve gone. Guess who survives?
The Game Is Rigged. Play It Better.
Let’s not romanticize it—power’s not fair. It never was. In politics. In business. In markets. From Batasan to Sand Hill Road, most of the big moves are made quietly, long before anyone sees the headlines. And after this year's midterm mayhem? Expect Casa Marcos to crank up the populist policies. More fuel subsidies. More noise about wages. Fewer real reforms.
Translation for your Investment Portfolio?
Focus on Consumer plays (retail, food, mass-market banks) tied to subsidy programs, wage hikes and shorter cash transfers might get a temporary boost. Take a closer look into PGOLD, URC and FB.
Infrastructure and utilities? Politically safe bets—expect support and spending—especially in swing regions. Based purely on this, MWIDE and SMC could actually make the Team.
Stay clear of reform-driven sectors—capital markets liberalization, foreign investment, tax modernization? –Sidelined. Cold. Icy cold. At least for now.
This isn’t a market collapse. It’s a signal shift. The theme’s no longer “transformation.” It’s z And that’s fine.
Because if you know how to listen, this is when the map lights up.
How to Play It?
Like a Y Combinator founder who’s been told ‘NO’ 43 times and still closes the round. You don’t whine. You don’t tweet threats.
You build sharper. Forget chasing headlines. Follow capital flow. Bet on sectors that benefit from inertia—and be early on the next regime’s darlings. You want the real edge?
Watch the spending bills. That’s where the direction shows up first.
Track the bottlenecks. Populist plays flood cash into inefficient systems. Get there before the consultants do.
Back the cockroach companies. The ones that don’t need perfect conditions to grow.
And whatever you do—don’t sit still waiting for fairness. Fairness doesn’t scale.
Build What Outlasts the Cycle
In fractured markets, real leaders don’t just hedge. They position. They know the game is rigged. And still—they play. Better. Cleaner. Smarter. They’re not the loudest in the room. They’re the ones quietly drawing the map everyone else ends up following.
So, sharpen your thesis. Tighten your circle. And move when others are still refreshing headlines. So that when the story’s breaking— you're already writing the next chapter.